-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 7
About the ECMWF db
The database use to sample the large scale fields is based on the ECMWF ensemble reforecasts. Twice a week, the ECMWF reruns their current operational model for a number of past days. In particular, On January 16th 2017, the model was rerun for all January 16th's from 1997 to 2016. Instead of a full ensemble, only 5 members are run.
[Add information about how they run this twice a week]
For some forecast parameters, the model has a climatology that varies with leadtime. That is, the first day of the forecast could be dryer or wetter on average than the other forecast days. In addition, the first day may have greater or less spread of possible states than the other days.
This can be problematic for two reasons:
- The "truth" dataset (i.e. the first day of the forecasts) will have a different climatology than the simulation;
- The end states of a 10-day trajectory can end up in a state that is rare for the beginning state, thereby incorrectly sampling the distribution.
To fix this, a quantile mapping correction has been applied to each leadtime. That is, leadtimes 1-9 have been adjusted such that they have the same frequency of values as leadtime 0. This proceedure is done separately on every gridpoint.
The raw data in the database does not include incoming solar radiation. We diagnose this value [more from Cristian here].
Copyright © 2016-2019 Norwegian Meteorological Institute
- Home
- Creating scenarios
- Creating truth scenarios
- Verification
- Other
- Developing
- Change log