make waste incineration emissions part of chemicals MAC curve #1662

JakobBD · 2024-04-22T16:09:16Z

Purpose of this PR

Addresses issue #274 by adding incineration emissions to vm_emiIndBase, such that they can be abated with the chemicals mac curve.

Remove parameters p37_wasteIncinerationCCSshare, p37_regionalWasteIncinerationCCSshare and the switch cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare accordingly.

Type of change

(Make sure to delete from the Type-of-change list the items not relevant to your PR)

Checklist:

My code follows the coding etiquette
I performed a self-review of my own code
I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
I adjusted the reporting in remind2 where it was needed
I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)
The changelog CHANGELOG.md has been updated correctly

Further information (optional):

Test runs are here:
/p/tmp/jakobdu/remind_wasteIncinerationMAC
Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

… of unaccounted CCS

JakobBD · 2024-04-22T16:12:05Z

Test runs have only been started just now; implementation might still have bugs. And we should definitely adjust MAC curve parameters to account for different costs & capture rates in waste incineration.

robertpietzcker · 2024-04-25T09:27:43Z

modules/37_industry/subsectors/equations.gms

    v37_plasticWaste(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,emiMkt)
  * pm_incinerationRate(t,regi)
-  ) * (1 - p37_regionalWasteIncinerationCCSshare(t,regi))


I currently don't understand this - won't this mean that vm_incinerationEmi will always show the FULL carbon content burned, even if part of that is captured?
if yes, it would be good to adjust the description of vm_incinerationEmi to highlight this.

Yes you are absolutely right. And more importantly, we have to update remind2.
We could do this with a postsolve parameter which applies the same capture rate on this as on the rest of the chemicals subsector, but I'd have to also check the implications of the now increased vm_emiIndCCS.
This will take a while, an I'm on holidays next week.

Looking forward to Ctrl+F through 3000 lines of reportEmi...

Its just four lines with vm_incinerationEmi, quit the whining.

You do it then :)

JakobBD#5 & pik-piam/remind2#593

robertpietzcker · 2024-04-25T09:33:47Z

Hi Jakob, what is the status of the runs to check the implementations?
(just to make sure they look reasonable before approving the PR)

JakobBD · 2024-04-25T09:42:57Z

Runs converged. I haven't checked the results yet. But in order to get meaningful and easy to interpret results, we need to adapt remind2.

…_incineration_mac separate incineration emi before and after CCS to ease reporting

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q · 2024-05-06T11:51:12Z

Probably not what was intended …

robertpietzcker · 2024-05-07T12:39:46Z

if some comment/ review from me is needed, please ping me - the way I interpret it this is still under work, right?

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q · 2024-05-07T15:44:10Z

Current state:

Emi|CO2|+|Energy >                                                            
   + Emi|CO2|Energy|+|Supply                                               
   + Emi|CO2|Energy|+|Demand                                               
   + Emi|CO2|Energy|+|Waste                                                
Relative difference between -1207% and 1648%, absolute difference up to 454 Mt CO2/yr.

Emi|CO2|Gross|Energy >                                                        
   + Emi|CO2|Gross|Energy|+|Supply                                         
   + Emi|CO2|Gross|Energy|+|Demand                                         
   + Emi|CO2|Gross|Energy|+|Waste                                          
Relative difference between 0.00533% and 31%, absolute difference up to 454 Mt CO2/yr.

Emi|GHG|+++|Energy >                                                          
   + Emi|GHG|Energy|+|Supply                                               
   + Emi|GHG|Energy|+|Demand                                               
   + Emi|GHG|Energy|+|Waste                                                
Relative difference between -3388% and 112%, absolute difference up to 454 Mt CO2eq/yr.

Emi|GHG|++|ETS >                                                              
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Energy Supply                                           
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Industry                                                
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Transport                                               
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|non-BECCS CDR                                           
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Extraction                                              
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Energy Waste                                            
   + Emi|GHG|ETS|+|Waste                                                   
Relative difference between -56.4% and 14972%, absolute difference up to 454 Mt CO2eq/yr.

Emi|GHG|Gross|Energy >                                                        
   + Emi|GHG|Gross|Energy|+|Supply                                         
   + Emi|GHG|Gross|Energy|+|Demand                                         
   + Emi|GHG|Gross|Energy|+|Waste                                          
Relative difference between 0.00431% and 30.3%, absolute difference up to 454 Mt CO2eq/yr.

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q · 2024-05-08T08:28:40Z

Back to the drawing board.
Emi|CO2|Energy|+|Demand is computed subtracting non-energy FE demand, and subtracting industry CCS. By putting part of the emissions from non-energy FE use into industry CCS, they get subtracted twice.

JakobBD · 2024-05-08T08:40:01Z

I faintly remember someone saying

but I'd have to also check the implications of the now increased vm_emiIndCCS

and someone else replying to

quit the whining

😇

…iteration, such that CONOPT sees the incentive to reduce ue_cement

…emineg file name

… to work for fixed_shares

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q

I am not convinced anymore that this is a desirable solution.
For one thing, it mixes two hitherto separate categories of energy and emissions in the chemicals subsector, FE use and non-FE use, in a way that makes it almost impossible to disentangle afterwards.
For another, what is the justification for applying the MAC curve for chemicals CCS to waste incineration?

robertpietzcker · 2024-05-17T13:11:37Z

Hm.
do we have anyone joining the REMIND team in the near future for whom "implementing an explicit waste incineration CCS MAC" would be a good starting task to get to know REMIND?

JakobBD · 2024-05-17T13:32:36Z

It was always a trade-off between implementation time and outcome.
You can disentangle the two if you assume equal capture rates for waste incineration and chemicals production.
If you want to, you can adapt the parameters in the MAC curve to squeeze waste incineration between the production points, assuming a constant share of incineration to production.
Of course an explicit waste incineration MAC curve would be better, if someone wants to do it.
We have a person coming to PIK early July who is going to implement a waste incineration CC process along with process-based chemistry. I will support this implementation.

robertpietzcker · 2024-05-17T13:49:13Z

so the question is "what are the requirements until maybe September/October, when we can hope for an updated implementation?"

for the projects I am involved with, we need to have stringent mitigation scenarios where there is no large amount of fossil waste emissions remaining in 2050, but we don't need a lot of subsectoral detail.

I think this "putting waste emissions into industry chemicals MAC" approach was an idea to achieve this aim.

However, if there is a project that requires information on sub-industry-sector level, this approach will clearly not be sufficient. Now the question is: Is there any such project with runs needed in the next 5 months?

if not, I would still propose to go for "use the chemicals MAC" as a short-term solution, knowing full well that this needs to be cleaned up by the person coming in July.

If there are other ideas about rather easy solutions for getting rid of the sizable fossil waste incineration emissions in 2050 NetZero scenarios, I am also open for it.

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q · 2024-05-17T14:35:15Z

Copy the chemicals CCS MAC curve, name it co2waste. Implement plastic waste CCS using that.
This would put us at the point that was intended from this PR, minus the reporting mess.
Figure out propper parameters for the waste CCS MAC curve and change them.

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q · 2024-05-17T14:41:30Z

I would still propose to go for "use the chemicals MAC" as a short-term solution,

Putting waste CCS into the same bucket as chemicals CCS, when the FE streams are in different buckets, disqualifies this solution for every project in which somebody might take even a cursory glance at industry results, in my view.

knowing full well that this needs to be cleaned up by the person coming in July.

We usually guestimate that people need six months to get up to speed with REMIND. We never guestimated how long it takes to get up to speed with reportEmi().
I strongly advise against making this hot mess the first assignment for anybody you actually want to keep on the REMIND team.

robertpietzcker · 2024-05-21T09:28:45Z

Putting waste CCS into the same bucket as chemicals CCS, when the FE streams are in different buckets, disqualifies this solution for every project in which somebody might take even a cursory glance at industry results, in my view.

which is exactly why I asked if you know of any project that needs this.
In ECEMF we will be staying at the aggregated industry level, so there having substantial fossils remaining is much more relevant than having the chemicals subsector wrong.

but your proposal anyway sounds better, if it is relatively easy to implement. (it sounds quite easy to simply copy the code and change the name, but as I never really worked with the MACs I can't really comment on that)

I think the second step shouldn't be challenging - we can ask Jess' group for a rough estimation of waste CCS costs, and if they don't have a clue, I can provide some estimations.

…_shares

…move_fixed_ccs_to_fixed_shares

…waste_incineration_mac

…into waste_incineration_mac

make waste incineration emissions part of chemicals MAC curve instead…

11ab128

… of unaccounted CCS

JakobBD requested review from 0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q, robertpietzcker, FalkoUeckerdt and fschreyer April 22, 2024 16:09

JakobBD mentioned this pull request Apr 22, 2024

set cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare to off in all scenario configurations until remindmodel/development_issues#274 is addressed #1660

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FalkoUeckerdt marked this pull request as ready for review April 22, 2024 17:18

robertpietzcker reviewed Apr 25, 2024

View reviewed changes

separate incineration emi before and after CCS to ease reporting

35151a7

This was referenced Apr 30, 2024

have reportEmi() use o37_incinerationEmi over vm_incinerationEmi if it is available pik-piam/remind2#593

Merged

separate incineration emi before and after CCS to ease reporting JakobBD/remind#5

Merged

Merge pull request #5 from 0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q/dev/waste…

bdbacf6

…_incineration_mac separate incineration emi before and after CCS to ease reporting

stuff negative emission hole

41c9ad5

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q force-pushed the waste_incineration_mac branch from 7e0e8bd to 41c9ad5 Compare May 6, 2024 12:17

JakobBD added 5 commits May 14, 2024 14:29

make cement process emissions a function of ue_cement in the current …

c1a1b0d

…iteration, such that CONOPT sees the incentive to reduce ue_cement

somewhat clean up industry ccs mac implementation

79ecc69

fix codeCheck issues

e883062

remove subsectors/presolve, adapt doc string to goxygen, change back …

e9367ab

…emineg file name

remove subsectors/presolve; adapt equation scope; adapt core/presolve…

0aa0913

… to work for fixed_shares

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q requested changes May 17, 2024

View reviewed changes

JakobBD added 6 commits May 21, 2024 11:29

Merge branch 'penalize_cementprocessemi' into move_fixed_ccs_to_fixed…

d7b4e75

…_shares

bugfix

0162c46

Merge branch 'penalize_cementprocessemi' into move_fixed_ccs_to_fixed…

f27f704

…_shares

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

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…move_fixed_ccs_to_fixed_shares

Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …

0e991ec

…waste_incineration_mac

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/move_fixed_ccs_to_fixed_shares' …

c14cd69

…into waste_incineration_mac

0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q mentioned this pull request Jun 25, 2024

add plastic waste incineration CCS to CCS pipeline #1717

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0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q closed this Jun 25, 2024

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make waste incineration emissions part of chemicals MAC curve #1662

make waste incineration emissions part of chemicals MAC curve #1662

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