Aronson Consulting was hired by New Orleans Real Estate Investment Firm to determine the top 5 "best" zip codes for their company to invest in over the next 5-10 years. Our client has concerns about both climate change and potential economic crash/fluctuation incidents. Therefore, the top 5 best zip codes will be those areas that:
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remained more or less stable during events such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 economic crash; and
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forecast increases in prices during the next 5-10 years based on historical data
To look into this request, we've used monthly data from the Zillow Research Page between 4/1/1996 - 4/1/2018. The data includes all zip codes within the United States as well as pricing data that we'll need to determine the top 5 best zip codes for our client to invest in. We'll use the historical pricing data to look at how prices have fluctuated over the past 22 years for homes in the New Orleans Metro area. We'll also looked at the Return on Investment for homes over each month and year, as well as the median and mean prices over the last 5 years, to see if there were any favorable changes. We will then able to use the time series ARIMA model to fit our data for each of the 5 zip codes to provide us with forecasted prices for the next 5-10 years.
After performing our analysis and using the ARIMA model, we've determined the 5 zip codes that are the best for our client to invest in are:
- 70118 (Orleans County)
- 70122 (Orleans County)
- 70001 (Jefferson County)
- 70068 (Saint John the Baptist County)
- 70037 (Plaquemines County)
Jupyter Notebook: dsc-mod-4-project-online-ds-ft-081219\5 Best Zip Codes.ipynb