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Explanation for everything found in the supplied R environment. Using one of the function might create new values, these are not explained here. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATA IC/ICend/ICsinglestart/ICstart: Information Criteria for VAR data: Original data for gold and Bitcoin prices (however weekends and public holidays already excluded), further data for the Weekend Dummies resid --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VALUES ChowValues: Chow statistic values used for the estimation of the break point D[...]:Time series of the dummy variables for the weekend spikes (same data as in "data") StrucBreakDummy: Dummy for the break point found with the Chow values dltsbitcoin: diff(log(data$Bitcoin)) dltsbitcoinend: data after the breakpoint for dltsbitcoin dltsbitcoinstart: data before the break point for dltsbitcoin dltsgold: diff(log(data$Gold)) dltsgoldend: data after the breakpoint for dltsgold dltsgoldstart: data before the break point for dltsgold extract: Bitcoin series extract showing a weekend spikes ltsbitcoin/trendltsbitcoin: logarithmized bitcoin prices --> detrended (for investigation of trend stationarity) z=StrucBreakDummy*dltsbitcoin --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FUNCTIONS The prediction functions should be self-explanatory. They are used to make predictions for several data points and always reestimate the coefficients The used variables are: tseries: series to predict n: how many datapoints to be predicted (the last n points) stepahead: forecast horizon ar, Iorder, ma: ARIMA orders exo: exogenous data series needed for the forecast laggedresid: a function to lag data series (move it back and forth), used in prediction functions ChowTestStrucChange: tests for a structural change in the Distributed Lag model between data points z1 and z2
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Contribution of the Bitcoin to the Modelling and Forecasting of Gold Prices
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