Skip to content

Contribution of the Bitcoin to the Modelling and Forecasting of Gold Prices

Notifications You must be signed in to change notification settings

SamBurkart/BA-Thesis

Folders and files

NameName
Last commit message
Last commit date

Latest commit

 

History

1 Commit
 
 
 
 
 
 

Repository files navigation

Explanation for everything found in the supplied R environment.
Using one of the function might create new values, these are not explained here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATA

IC/ICend/ICsinglestart/ICstart: Information Criteria for VAR
data: Original data for gold and Bitcoin prices (however weekends and public holidays already excluded), further data for the Weekend Dummies
resid
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VALUES

ChowValues: Chow statistic values used for the estimation of the break point
D[...]:Time series of the dummy variables for the weekend spikes (same data as in "data")
StrucBreakDummy: Dummy for the break point found with the Chow values
dltsbitcoin: diff(log(data$Bitcoin))
dltsbitcoinend: data after the breakpoint for dltsbitcoin
dltsbitcoinstart: data before the break point for dltsbitcoin
dltsgold: diff(log(data$Gold))
dltsgoldend: data after the breakpoint for dltsgold
dltsgoldstart: data before the break point for dltsgold
extract: Bitcoin series extract showing a weekend spikes
ltsbitcoin/trendltsbitcoin: logarithmized bitcoin prices --> detrended (for investigation of trend stationarity)
z=StrucBreakDummy*dltsbitcoin
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FUNCTIONS

The prediction functions should be self-explanatory. They are used to make predictions for several data points and always reestimate the coefficients
The used variables are:
tseries: series to predict
n: how many datapoints to be predicted (the last n points)
stepahead: forecast horizon
ar, Iorder, ma: ARIMA orders
exo: exogenous data series needed for the forecast

laggedresid: a function to lag data series (move it back and forth), used in prediction functions
ChowTestStrucChange: tests for a structural change in the Distributed Lag model between data points z1 and z2

About

Contribution of the Bitcoin to the Modelling and Forecasting of Gold Prices

Resources

Stars

Watchers

Forks

Releases

No releases published

Packages

No packages published