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route industry/fixed_shares calibration data through mrremind or not? #546

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0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q opened this issue Oct 20, 2021 · 5 comments
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@0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q
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The plan is for industry/fixed_shares to be a fast emulator for industry/subsectors. To that end, it needs the aggregated output of subsectors as an input into the calibration.
So e.g. feso_cement + feso_chemicals + feso_steel + feso_otherInd = fesoi.
This data can easily be calculated during the REMIND output phase and written to a dedicated file.
Or do you see a reason why that should be routed through mrremind?

@LaviniaBaumstark
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I think that if you want to run a fixed_shares-version of REMIND you should not first need to run a subsectors-version. I would prefer mrremind

@0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q
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I'm talking calibration. Your need to calibrate subsectors before you can calibrate fixed_shares. Only mrremind is optional in this process.

@LaviniaBaumstark
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ah, you cannot sum up the FE-pathways in mrremind according to the resolution of the fixed_shares realization and use this for the calibration of fixed_shares?

@0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q
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you cannot sum up the FE-pathways in mrremind according to the resolution of the fixed_shares realization and use this for the calibration of fixed_shares?

Sure you can.

But that workflow would be

  • run mrremind
  • calibrate subsectors
  • copy results somewhere to sources/REMIND
  • run mrremind
  • calibrate fixed_shares

whereas you could have

  • run mrremind
  • calibrate subsectors
  • copy results somewhere to ./modules/29_CESparameters/calibrate/input/
  • calibrate fixed_shares

So much easier. Or am I missing something?

@Renato-Rodrigues
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I am in favor of consistency, so I am definitely in favor of this effort. However, until the validation is done and the industry sub sectors get all the green lights from it I would be against changing fixed shares to be a direct aggregation of industry subsectors FEs.
I would instead add this feature under a switch for now, that can be enabled for fixed shares calibrations if the user wants.

My reasoning behind this is because, as far as I understand, FE trajectories assumptions for both relisations are quite different right now: long term FE trajectory in fixed shares is much higher than in industry subsectors; fixed shares is compatible with the biomass/fossil historical use in IEA balances for 2005, while industry subsectors is not (as Felix mentioned in the remind meeting, he had to disable the enforcement of historical shares at industry subsector runs for now).

Until these topics are water under the bridge, I would keep this switch disabled to avoid strong effects on current projects that still use industry fixed shares as it is. Once they are surpassed, we could move on turning this switch on by default.

On the alternative process to implement that, I am in favor of the second approach (Michaja's approach).
Once we finish a subsectors calibration we need anyway to add the calibration files to the shared folder in the cluster. I see no harm if they also include whatever any additional information is necessary to support this.

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