diff --git a/aquatics.html b/aquatics.html index dfd183f41..11ffc74e5 100644 --- a/aquatics.html +++ b/aquatics.html @@ -194,8 +194,8 @@

On this page

This map shows the NEON sites with and their CRPS score relative to the climatology model for the seven day ahead forecast, indicated by color. The size of each bubble shows the percent of models which are more skilled than climatology. Included in each site description is the site name, site type, number of models submitted, and the number of models that are more skilled than climatology. We define a skillful model as having a lower CRPS forecast score than the climatology model.

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These plots show the percent of skillful water temperature forecasts over the thirty day forecast horizon. The first plot shows the percent of skillful forecasts over for NEON lake sites and river sites separately.

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Forecasts

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Forecasts

Leaderboard

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Average skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-05-29.

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Average skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-05-30.

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-05-29 and 2023-08-27:

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Between 2023-05-30 and 2023-08-28:

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Long-term patterns

Here we look at some long term patterns in the median scores across all models. Are some months more predictable than others? Note that logs score penalties for observations that fall outside expected ranges are much higher than CRPS penalties.

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On this page

Forecasts

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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.
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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.
Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.

richness

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richness

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abundance

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Leaderboard

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-04-29 and 2023-08-27:

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Between 2023-04-30 and 2023-08-28:

  • 19 models have submitted a total of 324 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png b/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png index d4c61fae1..ca09bde70 100644 Binary files a/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png and b/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png differ diff --git a/phenology.html b/phenology.html index d15ad681a..4f284dbba 100644 --- a/phenology.html +++ b/phenology.html @@ -190,24 +190,24 @@

Forecasts

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Leaderboard

Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff.

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Submission statistics

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Between 2023-07-28 and 2023-08-27:

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Between 2023-07-29 and 2023-08-28:

  • 17 models have submitted a total of 982 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png b/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png index 7b93bddf9..500b73231 100644 Binary files a/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png and b/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png differ diff --git a/search.json b/search.json index 8c44de78b..68f0b47d1 100644 --- a/search.json +++ b/search.json @@ -11,14 +11,14 @@ "href": "ticks.html", "title": "Ticks", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" }, { "objectID": "ticks.html#forecasts", "href": "ticks.html#forecasts", "title": "Ticks", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" }, { "objectID": "ticks.html#leaderboard", @@ -32,21 +32,21 @@ "href": "ticks.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Ticks", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-04-29 and 2023-08-27:\n\n16 models have submitted a total of 272 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-04-30 and 2023-08-28:\n\n16 models have submitted a total of 272 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "status.html", "href": "status.html", "title": "Status", "section": "", - "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 109\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 518\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 3539\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 6124\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 240\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1239\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 8923\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 9208\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 549\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 103\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 489\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3380\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 3768\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 14\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 56\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 323\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 14\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 59\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 376\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 387" + "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 109\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 518\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 3556\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 6142\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 242\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1237\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 8967\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 9253\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 548\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 103\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 489\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3396\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 3785\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 56\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 323\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 59\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 376\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 387" }, { "objectID": "status.html#data-and-forecasts", "href": "status.html#data-and-forecasts", "title": "Status", "section": "", - "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 109\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 518\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 3539\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 6124\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 240\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1239\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 8923\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 9208\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 549\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 103\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 489\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3380\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 3768\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 14\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 56\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 323\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 14\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 59\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 376\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 387" + "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 109\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 518\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 3556\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 6142\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 242\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1237\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 8967\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 9253\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 548\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 103\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 489\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3396\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 3785\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 56\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 323\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 59\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 376\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 387" }, { "objectID": "index.html", @@ -88,21 +88,21 @@ "href": "phenology.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Phenology", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-07-28 and 2023-08-27:\n\n17 models have submitted a total of 982 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-07-29 and 2023-08-28:\n\n17 models have submitted a total of 982 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html", "href": "beetles.html", "title": "Beetles", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html#forecasts", "href": "beetles.html#forecasts", "title": "Beetles", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html#leaderboard", @@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ "href": "beetles.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Beetles", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-04-29 and 2023-08-27:\n\n19 models have submitted a total of 324 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-04-30 and 2023-08-28:\n\n19 models have submitted a total of 324 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "noaa.html", @@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ "href": "terrestrial.html", "title": "Terrestrial", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show the most recently submitted forecast (a single reference_datetime) for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNet ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n:::\n\n\n\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites.\nScores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days).\nScores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since cutoff date.\n\nLatent evaporationCO2 flux\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBetween 2023-07-28 and 2023-08-27:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 992 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "These plots show the most recently submitted forecast (a single reference_datetime) for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNet ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n:::\n\n\n\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites.\nScores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days).\nScores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since cutoff date.\n\nLatent evaporationCO2 flux\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBetween 2023-07-29 and 2023-08-28:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 992 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "terrestrial.html#forecasts", @@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ "href": "terrestrial.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Terrestrial", "section": "", - "text": "Between 2023-07-28 and 2023-08-27:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 992 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Between 2023-07-29 and 2023-08-28:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 992 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html", @@ -193,14 +193,14 @@ "href": "aquatics.html#leaderboard", "title": "Aquatics", "section": "Leaderboard", - "text": "Leaderboard\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-05-29.\n\nOxygenTemperatureChlorophyll-A" + "text": "Leaderboard\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-05-30.\n\nOxygenTemperatureChlorophyll-A" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html#submission-statistics", "href": "aquatics.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Aquatics", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-29 and 2023-08-27:\n\n55 models have submitted a total of 3855 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-30 and 2023-08-28:\n\n55 models have submitted a total of 3855 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html#long-term-patterns", diff --git a/status.html b/status.html index 39ebcb6c2..4fa305430 100644 --- a/status.html +++ b/status.html @@ -186,8 +186,8 @@

Data and Forecasts

NOAA related processes:

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Data and Forecasts

  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 109
  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 518
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 3539
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  • Total Forecasts submitted: 6124
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 3556
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  • Total Forecasts submitted: 6142

Targets

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Forecasts

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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 240
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 1239
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 8923
    • -
  • Total Forecasts submitted: 9208
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 242
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 1237
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 8967
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  • Total Forecasts submitted: 9253

Targets

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Targets

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Targets

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Forecasts

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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 14
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 0
  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 56
  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 323
  • Total Forecasts submitted: 384
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    Targets

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Forecasts

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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 14
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 0
  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 59
  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 376
  • Total Forecasts submitted: 387
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    Targets

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diff --git a/terrestrial.html b/terrestrial.html index 3471ca762..c9bd3ebfc 100644 --- a/terrestrial.html +++ b/terrestrial.html @@ -192,8 +192,8 @@

Forecasts

Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation

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CO2 Flux

Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)

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Leaderboard

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-07-28 and 2023-08-27:

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Between 2023-07-29 and 2023-08-28:

diff --git a/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png b/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png index 04f0af0ec..6d984e493 100644 Binary files a/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png and b/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png differ diff --git a/ticks.html b/ticks.html index 37da72a84..022e93779 100644 --- a/ticks.html +++ b/ticks.html @@ -185,7 +185,7 @@

On this page

Forecasts

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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-29 for which we have at least 10 observations.
+

These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-04-30 for which we have at least 10 observations.
Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.

Amblyomma americanum

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Amblyomma america
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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-04-29 and 2023-08-27:

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Between 2023-04-30 and 2023-08-28:

  • 16 models have submitted a total of 272 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png b/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png index ec668a226..29befd5ae 100644 Binary files a/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png and b/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png differ