diff --git a/aquatics.html b/aquatics.html index 49ef0ba5e..0a3a8c4e6 100644 --- a/aquatics.html +++ b/aquatics.html @@ -194,8 +194,8 @@

On this page

This map shows the NEON sites with and their CRPS score relative to the climatology model for the seven day ahead forecast, indicated by color. The size of each bubble shows the percent of models which are more skilled than climatology. Included in each site description is the site name, site type, number of models submitted, and the number of models that are more skilled than climatology. We define a skillful model as having a lower CRPS forecast score than the climatology model.

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These plots show the percent of skillful water temperature forecasts over the thirty day forecast horizon. The first plot shows the percent of skillful forecasts over for NEON lake sites and river sites separately.

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Forecasts

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Forecasts

Leaderboard

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Average skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-06-22.

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Average skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-06-23.

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-06-22 and 2023-09-20:

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Between 2023-06-23 and 2023-09-21:

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Long-term patterns

Here we look at some long term patterns in the median scores across all models. Are some months more predictable than others? Note that logs score penalties for observations that fall outside expected ranges are much higher than CRPS penalties.

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On this page

Forecasts

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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.
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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.
Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.

richness

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richness

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abundance

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Leaderboard

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-05-23 and 2023-09-20:

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Between 2023-05-24 and 2023-09-21:

  • 19 models have submitted a total of 356 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png b/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png index d8d768e4a..252feec6d 100644 Binary files a/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png and b/beetles_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png differ diff --git a/phenology.html b/phenology.html index f7248d4c5..89bc25bbf 100644 --- a/phenology.html +++ b/phenology.html @@ -190,24 +190,24 @@

Forecasts

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Leaderboard

Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff.

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Submission statistics

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Between 2023-08-21 and 2023-09-20:

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Between 2023-08-22 and 2023-09-21:

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  • 17 models have submitted a total of 966 forecasts to this challenge
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  • 17 models have submitted a total of 950 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png b/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png index c17a24e9e..2bde41ec0 100644 Binary files a/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png and b/phenology_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png differ diff --git a/search.json b/search.json index f52c3287a..5b5a573a2 100644 --- a/search.json +++ b/search.json @@ -4,14 +4,14 @@ "href": "ticks.html", "title": "Ticks", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" }, { "objectID": "ticks.html#forecasts", "href": "ticks.html#forecasts", "title": "Ticks", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 3Sites 4 - 6Sites 7 - 9" }, { "objectID": "ticks.html#leaderboard", @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ "href": "ticks.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Ticks", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-23 and 2023-09-20:\n\n16 models have submitted a total of 298 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-24 and 2023-09-21:\n\n16 models have submitted a total of 298 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "noaa.html", @@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ "href": "terrestrial.html", "title": "Terrestrial", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show the most recently submitted forecast (a single reference_datetime) for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNet ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n:::\n\n\n\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites.\nScores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days).\nScores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since cutoff date.\n\nLatent evaporationCO2 flux\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBetween 2023-08-21 and 2023-09-20:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 963 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "These plots show the most recently submitted forecast (a single reference_datetime) for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNet ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n:::\n\n\n\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites.\nScores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days).\nScores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since cutoff date.\n\nLatent evaporationCO2 flux\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBetween 2023-08-22 and 2023-09-21:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 946 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "terrestrial.html#forecasts", @@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ "href": "terrestrial.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Terrestrial", "section": "", - "text": "Between 2023-08-21 and 2023-09-20:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 963 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Between 2023-08-22 and 2023-09-21:\n\n18 models have submitted a total of 946 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "about.html", @@ -130,35 +130,35 @@ "href": "phenology.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Phenology", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-08-21 and 2023-09-20:\n\n17 models have submitted a total of 966 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-08-22 and 2023-09-21:\n\n17 models have submitted a total of 950 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "status.html", "href": "status.html", "title": "Status", "section": "", - "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 83\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 496\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 4411\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 7047\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 207\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1060\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 10025\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 10384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 527\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 67\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 414\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3758\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 4189\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 8\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 44\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 362\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 428\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 10\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 50\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 436\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 449" + "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 69\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 476\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 4408\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 7047\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 190\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1038\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 10042\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 10404\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 526\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 56\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 397\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3756\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 4189\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 8\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 44\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 362\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 428\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 10\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 49\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 436\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 449" }, { "objectID": "status.html#data-and-forecasts", "href": "status.html#data-and-forecasts", "title": "Status", "section": "", - "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 83\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 496\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 4411\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 7047\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 207\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1060\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 10025\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 10384\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 527\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 67\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 414\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3758\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 4189\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 8\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 44\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 362\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 428\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 10\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 50\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 436\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 449" + "text": "Met DataPhenology DataAquatics DataTerrestrial Data (30min)Terrestrial Data (Daily)Ticks DataBeetles DataAutomated Jobs\n\n\nNOAA related processes:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 69\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 476\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 4408\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 7047\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 190\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 1038\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 10042\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 10404\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last week: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last month: 0\nThirty minute forecasts submitted over the last year: 526\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 726\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last week: 56\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last month: 397\nDaily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3756\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 4189\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 8\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 44\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 362\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 428\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasts submitted over the last week: 10\nForecasts submitted over the last month: 49\nForecasts submitted over the last year: 436\nTotal Forecasts submitted: 449" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html", "href": "beetles.html", "title": "Beetles", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html#forecasts", "href": "beetles.html#forecasts", "title": "Beetles", "section": "", - "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" + "text": "These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.\nModels which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSites 1 - 8Sites 9 - 16Sites 17 - 24Sites 25 - 32Sites 33 - 40Sites 41 - 47" }, { "objectID": "beetles.html#leaderboard", @@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ "href": "beetles.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Beetles", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-23 and 2023-09-20:\n\n19 models have submitted a total of 356 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-05-24 and 2023-09-21:\n\n19 models have submitted a total of 356 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html", @@ -193,14 +193,14 @@ "href": "aquatics.html#leaderboard", "title": "Aquatics", "section": "Leaderboard", - "text": "Leaderboard\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-06-22.\n\nOxygenTemperatureChlorophyll-A" + "text": "Leaderboard\nAverage skill scores of each model across all sites. Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days). Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime out of submissions made since the cutoff date, 2023-06-23.\n\nOxygenTemperatureChlorophyll-A" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html#submission-statistics", "href": "aquatics.html#submission-statistics", "title": "Aquatics", "section": "Submission statistics", - "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-06-22 and 2023-09-20:\n\n54 models have submitted a total of 3743 forecasts to this challenge" + "text": "Submission statistics\nBetween 2023-06-23 and 2023-09-21:\n\n54 models have submitted a total of 3723 forecasts to this challenge" }, { "objectID": "aquatics.html#long-term-patterns", diff --git a/status.html b/status.html index 79a01f308..7e8153fdc 100644 --- a/status.html +++ b/status.html @@ -186,52 +186,52 @@

Data and Forecasts

NOAA related processes:

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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 83
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 496
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 4411
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 69
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 476
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 4408
  • Total Forecasts submitted: 7047

Targets

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Forecasts

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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 207
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 1060
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 10025
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  • Total Forecasts submitted: 10384
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last week: 190
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last month: 1038
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  • Forecasts submitted over the last year: 10042
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  • Total Forecasts submitted: 10404

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Targets

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Forecasts

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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last week: 67
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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last month: 414
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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3758
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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last week: 56
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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last month: 397
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  • Daily forecasts submitted over the last year: 3756
  • Total Forecasts submitted: 4189

Targets

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Targets

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diff --git a/terrestrial.html b/terrestrial.html index 641acd57c..5a084a3c6 100644 --- a/terrestrial.html +++ b/terrestrial.html @@ -192,8 +192,8 @@

Forecasts

Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown. ::: panel-tabset ## Latent evaporation

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CO2 Flux

Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE)

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Leaderboard

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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-08-21 and 2023-09-20:

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Between 2023-08-22 and 2023-09-21:

diff --git a/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png b/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png index 47eebe709..92e920398 100644 Binary files a/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png and b/terrestrial_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png differ diff --git a/ticks.html b/ticks.html index c37ba3e2d..fd5e94372 100644 --- a/ticks.html +++ b/ticks.html @@ -185,7 +185,7 @@

On this page

Forecasts

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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-23 for which we have at least 10 observations.
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These plots show forecasts that were submitted on 2023-05-24 for which we have at least 10 observations.
Models which did not submit a forecast on the given reference date are not shown.

Amblyomma americanum

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Amblyomma america
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Leaderboard

Submission statistics

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Between 2023-05-23 and 2023-09-20:

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Between 2023-05-24 and 2023-09-21:

  • 16 models have submitted a total of 298 forecasts to this challenge
diff --git a/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png b/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png index a4096b5ee..eeb5697d6 100644 Binary files a/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png and b/ticks_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png differ