Worksheet(s) in the FABLE Calculator:
⇒ 1_calc_human_demand
⇒ 1_data_demand
The computation of the annual demand for food and non-food human consumption is the first step of the FABLE Calculator. This means that all computed changes in the food and land-use systems modelled in the FABLE Calculator are caused by human demand (i.e. the underlying assumption is that human demand is the key driver of change in food and land-use systems). Human demand has two components: food and non-food consumption (Figure 3). Most of the agricultural products in the FABLE Calculator are food products but can also be used for other purposes (e.g. bioenergy, chemicals, etc.) and some agricultural products are not fit for human consumption (e.g. rubber, jute, etc.). Food and non-food demand per product per capita for the historical years is computed based on the commodity balance of the FAOSTAT. In the current version of the FABLE Calculator, non-food demand per capita is fixed at the 2010 level. In the future, we may include alternative scenarios on the evolution of non-food demand by 2050 to better reflect certain policies (e.g. bioenergy policies).
The evolution of food consumption per capita depends on which scenario is selected. It is computed as the historical food demand in 2010 (without food waste) times the shifter corresponding to the selected scenario (cf. Diets). The final demand per capita per year per product is computed as the sum of non-food consumption per capita plus food consumption per capita augmented by the share of consumption which is wasted (cf. Food waste). Finally, the total demand is computed by multiplying average demand per capita by total population (cf. Population). Historical consumption levels are directly taken from the FAOSTAT for 2000, 2005, and 2010 and future demand is computed for each 5-year time step over 2015-2050 for each of the 76 raw and agricultural products (cf. Appendix 1).
